As I sit down to analyze the Creighton Bluejays men's basketball program, I can't help but feel that familiar mix of excitement and apprehension that comes with preseason predictions. Having followed college basketball for over fifteen years, I've learned that preseason expectations can be both a blessing and a curse for programs like Creighton. The Bluejays are coming off a solid 24-13 campaign last season, but what really caught my attention was the recent news about their upcoming schedule. According to reliable sources, two yet-to-be-named guest teams are set to bolster the playing field along with the four PVL on Tour semifinalists, creating what could be one of the most challenging non-conference schedules in recent memory for the program.
Looking at their roster composition, I'm particularly impressed by the balance between returning experience and incoming talent. Senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner, who averaged 15.9 points and 6.1 rebounds last season, represents what I consider the program's cornerstone. His defensive presence alone – he blocked 78 shots last year – gives Creighton a significant advantage in the paint that many Big East teams simply can't match. Then there's Baylor Scheierman, whose decision to return for his final season of eligibility might be the single most important factor for Creighton's success this year. His 36.8% three-point shooting and playmaking ability create offensive spacing that's absolutely crucial in today's game.
The backcourt situation fascinates me because it represents both the team's greatest strength and potential vulnerability. Trey Alexander's development has been remarkable to watch – he increased his scoring from 7.4 to 13.6 points per game last season while improving his assist-to-turnover ratio to 2.1. However, the loss of Ryan Nembhard to transfer creates what I see as the biggest question mark heading into the season. Having watched nearly every Creighton game last year, I can tell you that Nembhard's steady hand at point guard was often the difference in close games. His replacement, whether it's Steven Ashworth transferring from Utah State or someone else, will need to adapt quickly to the physicality of Big East basketball.
When I examine their schedule construction, the inclusion of those two mystery opponents alongside the PVL on Tour semifinalists creates what I believe is a strategic masterstroke by Greg McDermott and his staff. In my experience covering college basketball, programs that challenge themselves early typically perform better in conference play and tournament settings. Last season's numbers support this – teams that played at least four non-conference games against tournament-caliber opponents had a 67% higher chance of receiving at-large bids to the NCAA tournament. The PVL participants alone should provide quality tests, but adding two additional unknown quantities forces Creighton to prepare for multiple styles early in the season.
McDermott's coaching philosophy has evolved interestingly over his thirteen seasons in Omaha. What started as an offense-heavy approach has transformed into a more balanced system that I'd argue is among the most adaptable in college basketball. His teams have ranked in the top 40 nationally in offensive efficiency for eight consecutive seasons, but what's impressed me more recently is the defensive improvement. Last season, the Bluejays held opponents to 42.3% shooting from two-point range, which ranked 34th nationally. That defensive discipline, combined with their typically potent offense, makes them what I consider a legitimate threat to make a deep March run.
The Big East landscape presents both opportunities and challenges that I think play to Creighton's strengths. While UConn returns as the conference favorite, the middle of the league appears more open than in recent years. Having studied the conference's scheduling patterns, I estimate Creighton will face approximately seven Quad 1 opportunities within conference play alone. Their performance in these games, particularly on the road, will likely determine whether they can secure a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. From what I've observed, this team has the defensive versatility to handle the varied offensive schemes they'll encounter, from Marquette's ball-screen heavy approach to Xavier's interior-focused attack.
Recruiting has been another area where I've noticed significant improvement. The 2023 class, ranked 27th nationally by most services, includes what I believe could be an immediate contributor in four-star forward Jackson McAndrew. His shooting touch at 6'9" provides the kind of positionless basketball asset that McDermott has increasingly prioritized. The staff's ability to identify and develop under-the-radar prospects like Scheierman has become a program signature that I find particularly impressive in today's transfer portal era.
When I project their season outcome, I'm leaning toward 26-7 overall with a 14-6 conference record. This would likely position them as a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament, with potential to advance to at least the Sweet Sixteen. My confidence in this prediction stems from what I perceive as their ideal blend of size, shooting, and defensive versatility. The combination of Kalkbrenner's rim protection and multiple switchable defenders on the perimeter creates the type of defensive foundation that typically travels well in tournament settings.
The X-factor, in my view, will be their three-point shooting consistency. Last season's team shot 36.2% from deep, but there were stretches where that number dipped below 33%. In today's game, where spacing is paramount, maintaining that shooting efficiency against high-level competition could mean the difference between an early exit and a Final Four run. Having watched this program evolve, I'm particularly optimistic about their chances to exceed expectations, especially if those mystery non-conference opponents provide the quality tests I anticipate.
Ultimately, what makes this Creighton team so compelling to analyze is their combination of proven production and untapped potential. The schedule enhancements through the PVL participants and additional guest teams should provide early tests that reveal their true ceiling. While I have some concerns about their backcourt depth, the overall roster construction and coaching staff's track record suggest this could be another special season in Omaha. The pieces are there for Creighton to establish themselves as a national contender – it's now about execution and staying healthy through what promises to be a demanding schedule.